棋牌大全下载安装

  • <tr id='9i458'><strong id='9i458'></strong><small id='9i458'></small><button id='9i458'></button><li id='9i458'><noscript id='9i458'><big id='9i458'></big><dt id='9i458'></dt></noscript></li></tr><ol id='9i458'><option id='9i458'><table id='9i458'><blockquote id='9i458'><tbody id='9i458'></tbody></blockquote></table></option></ol><u id='9i458'></u><kbd id='9i458'><kbd id='9i458'></kbd></kbd>

    <code id='9i458'><strong id='9i458'></strong></code>

    <fieldset id='9i458'></fieldset>
          <span id='9i458'></span>

              <ins id='9i458'></ins>
              <acronym id='9i458'><em id='9i458'></em><td id='9i458'><div id='9i458'></div></td></acronym><address id='9i458'><big id='9i458'><big id='9i458'></big><legend id='9i458'></legend></big></address>

              <i id='9i458'><div id='9i458'><ins id='9i458'></ins></div></i>
              <i id='9i458'></i>
            1. <dl id='9i458'></dl>
              1. 当前位置: 代写一篇论文多少钱 > 社会哲学论文 > 技术预测的含义、模式及哲学思考

                技术预测的含义、模式及哲学思考

                时间:2019-02-24 08:58作者:曼切
                本文导读:这是一篇关于技术预测的含义、模式及哲学思考的文章,随着技术竞争日益激烈,世界各国对技术预测的重视与日俱增。已有的技术预测研究,主要是从技术管理的角度展开的整体性分析,且侧重于技术预测的具体操作方法,并不能从根本上提升一个国家或地区的技术竞争优势。

                  摘    要: 从根本上讲,技术预测在于创造出新的技术人工物。技术预测是为了实现某种技术目的,根据已有技术知识,对如何实施和控制事件过程进行的预先计算或断定。对技术知识的掌握是进行技术预测的基础,依据不同类型的理论工具知识,技术预测表现为不同的模式。技术预测实质上是一种实践推理过程,其准确性具有或然性。

                  关键词: 技术预测; 技术知识; 实践推理;

                  Abstract:棋牌大全下载安装 Fundamentally, technology forecasting is about creating new technological artifacts. The technological forecasting is pre-calculation or determination about how to implement and control the process, based on the knowledge of technology, in order to achieve a certain technological purpose. The mastery of technological knowledge is the basis for technological forecasting. According to different types of theoretical tool knowledge, technological forecasting is expressed in different modes. Technological forecasting is essentially a process of practical inference, and its accuracy is probabilistic.

                  Keyword: technological forecasting; technological knowledge; practical inference;

                  SUIZHEJISHUJINGZHENGRIYIJILIE,SHIJIEGEGUODUIJISHUYUCEDEZHONGSHIYURIJUZENG。YIYOUDEJISHUYUCEYANJIU,ZHUYAOSHICONGJISHUGUANLIDEJIAODUZHANKAIDEZHENGTIXINGFENXI,QIECEZHONGYUJISHUYUCEDEJUTICAOZUOFANGFA,BINGBUNENGCONGGENBENSHANGTISHENGYIGEGUOJIAHUODIQUDEJISHUJINGZHENGYOUSHI。YINCI,WEIYOULIYUTISHENGYUANSHIJISHUCHUANGXINNENGLI,ZHANGWOHECHUANGZAOHEXINJISHU,BENWENJIANGCONGFENXIJISHUZHEXUESHIJIAO,YANJIUJISHURENGONGWUDEJISHUYUCEDEHANYI、MOSHI、SHIZHIJIZHUNQUEXINGDENGZHEXUEWENTI。

                  一、技术预测的含义

                  JISHUYUCE(Technological Forecasting)ZUIZAOQIYUANYU20SHIJICHUQIDUIJISHUJINXINGKEXUEGUANLIDESIXIANG。20SHIJI30NIANDAI,JISHUYUCEJIANGZAOQIJUNSHIDEZUOZHANJINGYANSHUJUHESHUXUEMOXINGJIEHE,ZAIDIERCISHIJIEDAZHANZHONGDEDAOLECHENGGONGDIYINGYONG。[1]20SHIJI40NIANDAI,MEIGUOZHUYAOJIANGJISHUYUCEYONGYUJUNSHIHEHANGTIANLINGYU。ZHIHOU,JISHUYUCEHENKUAIWEIQITAGUOJIASUOYUNYONG。20SHIJI70-80NIANDAI,DEERFEIFAKAISHILIUXINGBINGZHUJIANCHENGWEIXIANDAIJISHUYUCEDEZUIZHUYAOFANGFA。

                  YIDEERFEIFAJINXINGDEJISHUYUCE,SHIDUIJISHUFAZHANGUILVHEQUSHIJINXINGDEZHENGTIXINGDEPANDUANHETUICE,MUDEZAIYUKEXUEGUANLI。YINGGUOSussexDAXUESPRU(Science Policy Research Unit)YANJIUSUOMADING(Martin)JIAOSHOURENWEI:“JISHUYUCESHIDUIWEILAIJIAOZHANGSHIQIDEKEXUE、JISHU、JINGJIHESHEHUIFAZHANJINXINGXITONGYANJIU,QIMUBIAOSHIQUEDINGJUYOUZHANLVEXINGDEYANJIULINGYU,YIJIXUANZEDUIJINGJIHESHEHUILIYIJUYOUZUIDAGONGXIANDEJISHUQUN。”[2]ZHEIYIDINGYITUCHUTIXIANLEJISHUYUCEDEZHENGTIXINGTEDIAN,BINGDEDAOLEPUTONGJIESHOU。JIYUSHANGSHUDINGYI,DADUOSHUZHUANJIAZHILIYUWANSHANJISHUYUCEDESHOUDUAN。

                  SHANGSHUZHENGTIXINGJISHUYUCEFANGSHIGUANZHUSHEHUIXUQIUDUIJISHUDETUIDONG,BIAOXIANWEIYIZHONGWAIBUDEJISHUYUCEFANGSHI。DANGRENMENMEIYOUHENHAODERENSHIDAOJISHUBENSHENDEGUILVSHI,ZHEILEIYUCEFANGFAYOUZHUYUXUANDINGMOUXIEJISHUMUBIAO,JUYOUYIDINGDEJIAZHI。DANQINEIHANGUOYUXIAZHAI,YINWEIJISHUSHIYIGEFUZADEXITONG,DUIJISHUJINXINGYUCECHULEXUYAOQUEDINGJISHUMUBIAO,HAIXUYAODUIJISHUDESHIXIANGUOCHENGHEJIEGUOJINXINGYUCE,JIJISHUYUCEBUJINYAOCONGZHENGTIJIAODUQUEDINGYINGGAIFAZHANNAXIEJISHU,HAIXUYAOCONGJISHUSHIJIANDEJIAODUMINGQUEYIXIANGJISHUYINGGAIZENYANGYIJIHESHINENGGOUCHENGWEIXIANSHI。GENGZHONGYAODESHI,CONGJISHUZISHENLAIKAN,JISHUYUCEZUIWEIGUANJIANDESHIDUIMOUYIXIANGJISHURENGONGWUZUOCHUYUCE,CONGJISHUFAZHANDENEIZAIGUILVCHUFAGENGZHUNQUEDIYUCEJISHU,YIYINLINGYUANCHUANGXINGJISHUDEFAZHAN。

                  为此,我们有必要考查技术预测的含义。从词源看,技术预测与科学预见相关,其中的关键词是“预测”与“预见”。在《汉语大词典》中,“预测”的含义是:预先推测或测定;事前的推测或测定。“预见”的含义是:根据事物的发展规律预先料到将来;预先料到将来的见识。 [3]在Merriam-Webster's Collegiate Dictionary词典中,“预测”的英文“forecast”的含义是通过研究和分析可用的相关数据来计算或预见(calculate or predict)(某些未来的事件或情况);“预见”的英文“predict”是指预先显示或指出,特别是基于观测、实验,或科学理由的详细告诉(foretell)。两者是同义词,但有差别。预测是指期望可能性事件。预见通常指从事实或已接受的自然规律做出的推理(inference)。预测强调的是可能性,而不是确定性;预见强调的是确定性,强调的是推理。所以在通常的意义上,预测较之于预见的准确性、确定性要差一些。一般我们在使用中称“科学预见”、“技术预测”。当然,预测在量子力学领域会有所不同,量子力学的概率是建立在量子力学的规律之上的,可以严格计算。
                 

                技术预测的含义、模式及哲学思考
                 

                  KEXUEYUJIANYUJISHUYUCEYEYOUQUBIE。CONGGUOCHENGLAIKAN,KEXUEYUJIANSHIGENJUYITICHUDEKEXUELILUNJIASHEHESHUXUEMOXING,YOUCIYUCEWEIZHIDEKEXUEXIANXIANG。BIRU,TONGGUOYUELIANGYUDIQIUDEWEIZHIYUJULIGUANXI,KEYIYUJIANYOUYUELIANGYINLIDAOZHIDECHAOXISHENMEQINGKUANGXIAHUICHUXIAN。JISHUYUCETONGCHANGSHI,CONGJISHUGUILVDEJIAODUCHUFA,ZHILIYURUHEJIEJUEYINGXIANGHUANJINGHEZHUNBEIYIDINGDEJISHUTIAOJIAN,YISHIXIANYIDINGDEJISHUMUDE(JISHUSHIJIAN)。BIRUWEILERENZAOWEIXINGSHANGTIAN,TONGGUONIUDUNDINGLVYUWANYOUYINLIDINGLVDENGYUCERENZAOWEIXINGDEFEIXINGSUDUYUYUNXINGGUIDAODENG。ZHEIZHONGCHABIEYEYUKEXUEHEJISHUDEBUTONGYOUGUAN,KEXUECHANGCHANGSHIYIZHONGDUIWEIZHIDERENZHIHETANSUO;JISHUZESHIYIZHONGZHILIYUYOUXIAOGAIZAOKEGUANWUZHISHIJIEDESHOUDUAN,QIMUDEXINGZONGSHIXIANZAIDE。YINCI,KEXUEYUJIANHEJISHUYUCEZAILIANGZHEDELUOJIXINGSHISHANGYEYOUSUOBUTONG,ZHANGHUAXIAHEZHANGZHILINRENWEI,YIGEDIANXINGDEKEXUEYUJIANJUYOUZHEIYANGDEXINGSHI:“RUGUOxZAISHIJIANtCHUXIAN,ZEyJIANGZAISHIJIANt’YIGAILVPCHUXIAN”;DUIYUJISHUYUCELAISHUO,DIANXINGDEJISHUYUCECAIQUZHEIYANGDEXINGSHI:“RUGUOyZAISHIJIANt’YIGAILVPDEDAOSHIXIAN,ZExYINGGAIZAISHIJIANtBEIZUOWAN”。[4]BANGGEYECENGTONGGUOBIJIAOKEXUEYUJIANYUJISHUYUCEDEQUBIE,ZHICHU:JISHUYUCECHULIDESHISHOUDUAN——MUDEDEXUANZEGUANXI。JIDINGMUBIAO,YUCESHOUDUAN(BAOKUOJISHUJIADEXINGDONG)RUHEDADAOMUBIAO。[4]YOUCIKEJIAN,CONGFENXIJISHUZHEXUEDEJIAODU,JISHUYUCESHIWEILESHIXIANMOUZHONGJISHUMUDE,GENJUYIYOUJISHUZHISHI,DUIRUHESHISHIHEKONGZHISHIJIANGUOCHENGJINXINGDEYUXIANJISUANHUODUANDING。JISHISHUO,ZAIYIXIANGJISHURENGONGWUDESHIXIANGUOCHENGZHONG,YINGGAIBAOHANZHEZHEIYANGYIGELUOJIDEGUOCHENG:JISHUMUBIAO—JISHUYUCE—JISHUSHOUDUAN。JISHUYUCEGUANZHUDESHIJISHURUHESHIXIAN,SHISHENRUDAOJISHUHEIXIANGNEIBUDEYIGEGUOCHENG,SHIJISHUSHIXIANGUOCHENGZHONGDEYINHANTUIDONGZHE。

                  二、技术预测的依据和模式

                  1.技术预测的依据

                棋牌大全下载安装   JISHUYUCEDEMUDEZAIYUSHIXIANJISHURENGONGWU。JISHUYUCESHIWEILEKAOCHAJISHUDEKENENGXING,YIJIYOUZHEIZHONGKENENGXINGDAOJISHUSHIXIANGUOCHENGDETUIDONGWENTI。JISHURENGONGWUSHIJISHUDEHEXINHEZUIZHONGLUOJIAODIAN。YINERZHEIZHONGTUIDONGGUOCHENGSHIRUHEFASHENGJIRUHESHIXIANDE,BIXULIZUYUJISHURENGONGWULAIJINXINGKAOCHA。

                  JISHURENGONGWUDESHIXIANSHIYIGEFUZADEGUOCHENG,SHEJIDUOGECENGCIDEWULITIAOJIANHESHEHUITIAOJIAN。LAPUBAYIXIANGJISHUHUODONGDEYUESHUTIAOJIANFENWEISIZHONGLEIXING:(1)WUZHISHIJIEDEJIEGOU:LUOJI、ZIRANDINGLV;(2)ZHILIZIYUAN:KEXUEZHISHIHEJISHUZHISHIJINENGLIDEZHUANGKUANG;(3)WUZHIZIYUAN:YUANCAILIAO、NENGYUAN、JIXIE、RENLI;(4)SHEHUITIAOJIAN:SHICHANGJIZHI、ZHENGZHIHEFALVYUESHU。[5]ZHEISIGEFANGMIANDEFENLEI,CONGJISHUZISHENCHUFADUIQIYUESHUTIAOJIANJINXINGLEZHUGECENGCIDEMINGQUE,“RENHEJISHUSHANGKEXINGDEDONGXIDOUBUHUIPOHUAIQIMUDE,YEBUHUIYUTEDINGSHIJIEDEJUTIXIANZHIXIANGMAODUN,TEBIESHIDUIJIDINGJISHUJICHUSHESHI、SHIJIAN、JINQIAN、FALVHUOSHEHUIKEJIESHOUXINGDEXIANZHI”[6]。SHANGSHUFENLEIFANYINGCHUYIXIANGJISHUCONGXIANGGUANJISHULINIANDEMENGSHENGZHIZHIJISHUMUBIAODESHIXIANGUOCHENGZHONGDEBUTONGJIEDUANDEJICHUHETIAOJIAN,WEIJINXINGJISHUYUCETIGONGLECANZHAOHEYIJU。QIZHONG,WUZHISHIJIEDEJIEGOU、ZHILIZIYUANSHIYUCEJISHUSHIFOUJUYOUKENENGXINGDEYIJU;WUZHIZIYUANSHIYUCEKENENGXINGNENGFOUDEYISHIXIANYIJIRUHESHIXIANDEJICHU;SHEHUITIAOJIANGENGDUODESHISHEJIYUJISHUPINGGUXIANGGUANDEJIAZHIYINSU。JISHUYUCEGUOCHENGZHONGDEGUANJIANSHIDUIWUZHISHIJIEDEJIEGOUDERENZHISUOXINGCHENGDEZHILIZIYUAN,ZHEIZHONGRENZHIKENENGSHIJINGYANXINGDE,YEKENENGXINGCHENGLEXITONGDELILUNZHISHI,CONGERSHIDEJISHUYUCETIXIANWEIBUTONGDECENGCI。

                棋牌大全下载安装   YIJUDUIWUZHISHIJIEDEJINGYANXINGRENZHIJINXINGDEJISHUYUCEYESHIJINGYANXINGDE。DANGYIXIANGYOUGUANJISHUDESHEXIANGZAIWUZHISHIJIEDEJIEGOUZHONGYOUSUOTIXIANDESHIHOU,TAJIUYOUKENENGZAILUOJIHEWULISHANGCUNZAI。YICIWEIYIJUJINXINGDEJISHUYUCETONGCHANGSHIJIANLIZAIJINGYANCENGCISHANGDE。BIRU,GUDAIRENMENTONGGUODUIFEINIAOHEFENGZHENGDEGUANCHA,ZAIBUQINGCHUFEIXINGYUANLIDEQINGKUANGXIARENGRANXIANGXINRENLEINENGGOUSHIXIANFEIXINGJISHU,BINGZUOLERUJIZIJIDESHOUBEIBANGSHANGJUDADECHIBANGSHIFEIDENGXUDUOCHANGSHI,ERQIEZUIZAODEFEIJIYESHIANZHAOFENGZHENGDEXINGXIANGZHIZUODEGUDINGYIFEIXINGQI。ZHEISHIYOUDUIZIRANXIANXIANGDEGUANCHACHANSHENGJISHULIANXIANGERJINXINGDEYIZHONGJISHUYUCE。ZHEIZHONGJISHUYUCESHIJINGYANXINGDE,TONGCHANGFASHENGZAIJISHUDEMENGSHENGJIEDUAN。

                  JINJINYIJUJINGYANXINGRENZHIJINXINGJISHUYUCE,DUIJISHUDETUIJINCHANGCHANGSHIHUANMANHEKUNNANDE。BIRU,GURENDEGEZHONGFEIXINGCHANGSHI,JINGZHANDERIBENDAODEZHIZUO。RIBENDAODEWAIXING、GONGNENGHEZHIZAOGUOCHENGBAOCHIBUBIANZHANGDA700NIANZHIJIU。YINWEICONGYEJINHUOHUAXUEFANGMIANKAN,GONGJIANGMENDUIQIZHONGDEYUANLIBINGBUQINGCHU,“ZAIZHIZUODEGUOCHENGZHONG,QIZHONGRENHEYIDIANXIAOXIAODEGAIBIANDOUHUIDAOZHIZHENGGEZHIZUODESHIBAI”,SUOYI“BUGAIBIANRENHESHIQING”CHENGWEIZHIZUOGUOCHENGZHONGDEXINTIAO。ZHEIZHONGCHUNCUIDEJINGYANXINGRENZHISHIJISHUYUCEDEFANWEIYANZHONGSHOUXIAN,YINWEIZHIYOUZAISUOYOUDETIAOJIANYUJINGYANYIZHIDEQINGKUANGXIA,CAINENGDUIXIAYIBUJINXINGYUCE,BUJINSHIDEJISHUDESHIBAILVHENGAO,ERQIEBULIYUDUIJISHUDEJINYIBUGAIJIN,YINER“JIHUBUKEBIMIANDIDAOZHILESUODINGHEJINHUATINGZHI”。[7]

                棋牌大全下载安装   YIJUKEXUELILUNHEJISHULILUNJINXINGDEJISHUYUCESHIJISHUYUCEDEZHUYAOFANGSHI。YUJISHUJINGYANFANYINGDEYINGUOLIANXIJIJISHUYUCEDAILAIMOUZHONGQIFABUTONG,JISHULILUNNENGGOUSHIYINGGUANGFANDECENGMIANJIJISHUYUCETIGONGZHICHENG。CONGGURENSHIFEIDESHIBAI,DAOGUDINGYIFEIXINGQIOUERNENGCHONGSHANGTIANKONGZUODUANZANERBUWENDINGDEFEIXING,ZAIDAOJINTIANXIANJINDEXIANDAIHANGKONGHANGTIANJISHU,JIHUWANQUANDEYIYUHANGKONGHANGTIANDEZHISHIYOUZUICHUDEMOHUJINGYANFAZHANDAOJINTIANWANBEIDELILUNZHISHIXITONG。JIYUGUANCHAYUJISHUYOUGUANDEZIRANXIANXIANG,DAORENSHIZIRANXIANXIANGZHONGDEKEXUEYUANLI,ZAICONGKEXUEYUANLIDAOJISHUYUANLIDEZHUANHUA,ZHEISHIYIGECONGJISHUJINGYANDAOJISHULILUNDERENZHISHENRUDEJINCHENG。JISHULILUNSHIYIDINGCHENGDUDEGUANYUJISHUDEGUILVXINGDERENZHI,GUILVXINGZUIDADETEDIANSHIZHONGFUXING,ZHEIWEIJINXINGYUCETIGONGLEKENENG。

                  2.技术预测的主要模式

                棋牌大全下载安装   DUIJISHUZHISHIDEZHANGWOSHIJINXINGJISHUYUCEDEJICHU。XIANDAIJISHURENGONGWUCONGSHEJIDAOZHIZAOCHUJISHUCHANPINDEMEIYIBU,WUBUJIANLIZAIZHUYAOYIJISHUZHISHIWEIYIJUDEJISHUYUCESHANG。BIZHEZHIYIWUGUOLINTICHU,JISHUZHISHIKEYIFENWEISANDALEI:JIBENSHEJIZHISHID、LILUNGONGJUTHEXINGDONGZHISHIA。[8]JIBENSHEJIZHISHISHIZAIJINXINGJISHUXITONGSHEJISHISUOXUYAODEJIBENZHISHI,ZHUYAOBAOKUODUILINGBUJIANWULIHEHUAXUEXINGZHIJINXINGMIAOSHUDECAILIAOZHISHI、DINGLIANGSHUJU,YIJIYUJISHUXITONGGOUJIANXIANGGUANDEJIEGOUZHISHI、GONGNENGZHISHIDENG。LILUNGONGJUZHUYAOBAOKUOJISHUGUIZE、JISHUGUILVHEJISHUYUANLI,QIZHONGDEJISHUGUILVHEJISHUYUANLISHIJISHUYUCEDEDAOKENENGDEGENBENYUANYIN。XINGDONGZHISHISHIDUIJISHURENGONGWUDESHENGCHANGUOCHENGZHONG,YUNYONGJUTIGONGJU、JIQIDENGDESHIJIANXINGWEIDEMIAOSHU。JIBENSHEJIZHISHI、LILUNGONGJUHEXINGDONGZHISHISHIXIANGHULIANXIDE,GONGTONGGOUCHENGSHEJI、FAMING、ZHIZAOXIANDAIJISHURENGONGWUDELILUNYIJU。JIBENSHEJIZHISHI、LILUNGONGJUHEXINGDONGZHISHIYUJISHUSHIJIANJIJISHURENGONGWUYIQI,GOUCHENGLEFANYINGJISHURENGONGWUCHANSHENGGUOCHENGDESHUANGSANJIAOXINGJISHUGUANXIMOXING[8]。

                  XIANRAN,SHUANGSANJIAOXINGJISHUGUANXIMOXINGWUFAJIESHIJISHURENGONGWUSHENGCHENGZHONGDEJISHUYUCEGUOCHENG。BIZHERENWEI,ZAIJISHUZHISHIYUJISHUSHIJIANZHIJIAN,YINGDANGZENGJIAYIGEJISHUYUCEHUANJIE,XINGCHENGYIGEBAOHANJISHUYUCEZAINEIDEJISHURENGONGWUDESHENGCHENGJIEGOUTU,JI“JISHUYUCEMOXING”,KECHENGWEISAN·SANJIAOXINGMOXING(RUTU1)。

                  图1 技术预测模型
                图1 技术预测模型

                  CONGJISHUYUCEMOXINGLAIKAN,JISHUZHISHISHIJISHUYUCEDEZHUYAOYIJU。SHISHISHANG,ZAIJISHUZHISHITIXIZHONG,BUTONGLEIXINGDEJISHUZHISHIDUIJISHUYUCEDEZUOYONGSHIBUTONGDE,JIBENSHEJIZHISHIHEXINGDONGZHISHIZAIJISHUGUOCHENGZHONGTONGCHANGYOUJIAOPUBIANSHIYONGXING。BAOHANZHEJISHUGUIZE、JISHUGUILVHEJISHUYUANLIDELILUNGONGJUSHIJISHUZHISHIDEHEXIN,QIZHONGJISHUGUILVYUJISHUYUANLISHIJISHUYUCEDEGENBENYUANYIN。YIJUBUTONGDELILUNGONGJUZUOCHUDEJISHUYUCE,QIMOSHIYEBUYIYANG。

                  JISHUGUILVWEIJISHUFAZHANQUSHIDEYUCETIGONGYIJU。JISHUGUILVJIUSHIZHIJISHUZISHENFAZHANDELUOJI,SHIJISHUXIANXIANGDEWENDINGDE、BENZHIDE、BIRANDELIANXI,SHIYIZHONGGUANYUJISHUDEZHENGTIXINGDERENZHI。BIRU,JISUANJICHANPINMANZUJISHUFAZHANDESXINGQUXIANQUSHI。SXINGQUXIANYONGLAIMIAOSHUJISHUDEFAZHANGUOCHENG,CONGZHENGTISHANGTIXIANJISHUXITONGDEFAZHANQUSHICHENGXIANMOUZHONGJINSISXINGDEGUILVXING。JISHUGUILVSHIZAIRENDEJISHUHUODONGZHONGSHENGCHENGDE,TASHEJIDAORENGONGWUZHIDEJICHU、RENGONGWUZHIDETIAOJIAN、RENWEIJIANLIDELIANXIDENGYINSU,ZHEIXIEYINSUYOUXIANGHUJIAOZHI,GONGTONGGOUCHENGLEJISHUGUILVDERENGONGSHENGCHENG。XIANYOUDECONGKEXUEGUANLIJIAODUJINXINGDEJISHUYUCE,BIANZHUYAOSHICONGJISHUGUILVCHUFAJINXINGDEYOUGUANJISHUDEZHENGTIXINGYUCE。

                棋牌大全下载安装   JISHUYUANLIWEIJUTIJISHUDEYUCETIGONGYIJU。JISHUYUANLISHIKEXUEYUANLIHUOKEXUEGUILVZAIJISHURENGONGWUDEJUTITIXIAN,FANYINGCHUMOUXIANGJISHURENGONGWUSUOJUYOUDETESHUDEYUNXINGJIZHI,SHIDUIJISHURENGONGWUDEJIEGOUDEYUNDONGJIZHIDEBIAODA。XINDEJISHUYUANLICHANGCHANGYUSHIZHEXINJISHUDEKAIQI。BIRUZAIHANGKONGHANGTIANLINGYU,ZHIYOUDANGNIUDUNFABIAOLETADESANDAYUNDONGDINGLVJIWANYOUYINLIDINGLVZHIHOU,CAIKAIQILEXIANDAIHANGKONGHANGTIANDELISHIJINCHENG。BIRU,ZAISHEJIBINGZHIZAOXIANDAIHUOJIANGUOCHENGZHONG,YIJUNIUDUNDEYUNDONGDINGLVHEWANYOUYINLIDINGLV,MEIGUODEGEDADEBOSHIZAI1919NIANYUCEHUOJIANBIXUJUYOU7.9km/sDESUDUCAINENGKEFUDIQIUDEYINLI;DEGUODEAOBOTEJIAOSHOUZAI1923 NIANYUCEHUOJIANZHIYAONENGCHANSHENGZUGOUDETUILI,BIANNENGRAODIQIUGUIDAOFEIXING;EGUODEQIAOERKEFUSIJIGENGJINYIBUYUCEBINGPANDUANLEYIDUOJIHUOJIANWEIDONGLISHIXIANZHANGJULIGAOSUDUHANGKONGYUNZAIDEKENENGXING。RENHEYIXIANGFUZADEJISHUDOUSHEJIDAOBAOKUOHEXINYUANLIYUFUZHUYUANLIDEDUOZHONGJISHUYUANLI,JISHUYUANLIHEJISHUGUILVNENGGOUWEIJISHUCONGQIDIANDAOZHONGDIANDEKENENGTIGONGYUCEYIJU。

                棋牌大全下载安装   JISHUGUIZEWEIJISHUDESHIXIANGUOCHENGTIGONGYUCEYIJU。JISHUGUIZESHIRENMENZAIJISHUHUODONGZHONG,WEIDADAOYIDINGDEMUBIAO,DUIRENMENYINGGAIRUHEXINGDONGZUOCHUDEGUIFANHEZHILING。ZAIJISHUHUODONGZHONG,RENMENZONGSHIZHUIQIUTONGGUODUIJISHUDUIXIANGDECHULIDEDAOXIANGYAODEJISHUJIEGUO。DANGYUCEDAOYIXIANGXINJISHUJUYOULELILUNSHANGDEKENENGXINGSHI,KEXUEDESHIJIANJIXIANGYINGDEZHIZAOJISHUBIANGUANXIDAOJISHUNENGFOUZUIZHONGSHIXIAN。XIANDAIJISHUDEFUZAZHUANGZHIHEXITONG,BIXUTONGGUOXINGCHENGLILUNHEFANGFALUNSIKAO,YUCEJIEJUEWENTIDEFANGSHI,ZHIDINGWANSHANDEJISHUCHENGXUCAINENGSHIXIAN。JISHUGUIZEWEIRENMENXIANGYAOSHIXIANDEMOUZHONGJISHUMUBIAOGAICAIQUSHENMEYANGDECHENGXUYUSHOUDUANTIGONGSHUOMING,WEIRENMENJINXINGJISHUHUODONGTIGONGXINGWEIZUNXUNHEZHUNZE,RUYIQISHEBEIDECAOZUOGUICHENG、ANQUANSHENGCHANSHOUZEDENG,SHIJISHUGUOCHENGSHUNLIJINXINGDEBAOZHENG。

                  三、技术预测的哲学思考

                棋牌大全下载安装   JISHUYUCETICHULEXUDUOXINDEZHEXUEWENTI,XIANYUPIANFU,BENBUFENJINTAOLUNLIANGGEWENTI。

                  1.关于技术预测的实质

                  JISHUYUCEDEMUDESHIFUWUYUZHIZAOJUYOUTEDINGGONGNENGDEJISHURENGONGWUDESHIJIAN,ZHILIYUJIEJUESHIXIANMOUZHONGGONGNENGGAIZENYANGZHIZAOCHUJUTIDEJISHURENGONGWUDEWENTI,FANYINGLEMUDE——SHOUDUANDEYINGUOGUANXI。

                棋牌大全下载安装   JISHUYUCEBIXUYIDUIJISHURENGONGWUDERENZHIWEIJICHU。ZAIXUEZHEMENDUIJISHURENGONGWUDERENZHIZHONG,BIJIAOYOUYINGXIANGLIDESHIHELANXUEPAIDEDAIBIAORENWUKELAOSI( P. Kroes)YUMEIYESI(A. Meijers)TICHUYONGJIEGOUYUGONGNENGLAIMIAOSHUJISHURENGONGWU,RENWEIJISHURENGONGWUSHIJUYOUGONGNENGHEJIEGOUDEWUZHISHITI。ZAIBIZHEKANLAI,CHULEJIEGOUYUGONGNENGZHIWAI,YAOSUYESHIMIAOSHUJISHURENGONGWUDEYIGEZHONGYAOYINSU,JISHURENGONGWUYINGGAISHIYOUJIEGOU、GONGNENGHEYAOSUZUCHENGDE。[9]TONGSHI,RENDEMUDEXINGZUOWEIYIZHONGSHEHUIYISHIDEJIEGUOYIJISHUYIZHIDEXINGSHISHIZHONGGUANCHUANYUJISHUHUODONGZHONG。KEJIAN,JUYOUMOUZHONGGONGNENGDEJISHURENGONGWUSHIANZHAOJISHUZHISHITIGONGDELUOJIZUNXUN,YOUJISHUYAOSUZAIRENDEYIXIANGZHUDAOXIA,XINGCHENGMOUZHONGTEDINGDEJIEGOUERSHIXIANDE;SHIYIZHONGJIYUZIRANGUILVHEZIRANWUZHI,YIRENDEMUDEXINGWEIZHUDAODEGOUJIAN,SHIWUZHITIAOJIANYURENDEYIXIANGGONGTONGZUOYONGXINGCHENGDEJIEGUO。CIWAI,JISHURENGONGWUWUYIHAISHOUZIRANJISHEHUIHUANJINGYINGXIANG。DUIJISHURENGONGWUJIEGOU、GONGNENG、YAOSUHEHUANJINGDEXITONGKAOLV,SHIJISHURENGONGWUJIEGOUHEGONGNENGZHIJIANJUYOUGENGDADEQUEDINGXING,YEWEIZHILIYUMUDE——SHOUDUANGUANXIDECHULIDEJISHUYUCETIGONGLEGENGDADEZHUNQUEXING。

                棋牌大全下载安装   CONGJISHUHUODONGDEGUOCHENGLAIKAN,JISHUYUCEJIYULIXINGZUOYOUZHEJISHUZHUTIDEYIXIANGHEXUANZE,SHENTOUYUYAOSU、JIEGOU、GONGNENGHEHUANJINGZHIZHONGFASHENGZUOYONG。TAANHANLEYIZHONGMUDE—SHOUDUANDEYINGUOGUANXI,JIYINQIYUBEIYINQIDEGUANXI,FANYINGDESHIYIZHONGYURENDESHIJIANHUODONGJINMILIANXIDESIWEIFANGSHI。YOUYUYUSHIJIANHUODONGJINMILIANXI,ZHEIZHONGSIWEIFANGSHIBINGBUYIDINGZONGSHIJUYOUYANYITUILIDELUOJIBIRANXING。CONGJISHUYUCEDEZUOYONGFANGSHILAIKAN,JISHUYUCEDEGUOCHENGSHIZHISHANGTIXIANWEIYIZHONGSHIJIANTUILI。

                  SHIJIANTUILISHICONG“YINGRAN”FEIYANYIDITUICHU“SHIRAN”DEYIZHONGTUILI,TADEJIELUNWEIXINGDONG、XINGDONGYITUHUOXINGDONGXINNIAN。SHIJIANTUILIDEJIBENJIEGOUSHI:[10]

                  (a)XIAOQIANTI:CHENSHUZHUTIDEYIXIANGMUBIAO

                棋牌大全下载安装   (b)DAQIANTI:CHENSHUSHIXIANYIXIANGMUBIAODEBIXUSHOUDUAN/FANGSHI

                棋牌大全下载安装   (c)JIE LUN:(FEIYANYIDIDEDAO)CAIQUBIXUSHOUDUAN/FANGSHIDEXINGDONG、XINGDONGYITUHUOXINGDONGXINNIAN

                  (a) DAO(b),FANYINGLEYIZHONGYINGRANGUANXI,(b)DAO (c)SHIYIZHONGSHIRANGUANXI。JISHUYUCEZAISHIXIANJISHUMUBIAO—JISHUSHOUDUANDEGUOCHENGZHONG,GENGDUODETIXIANLEZHEIYANGYIGESHIJIANTUILIDEGUOCHENG。ZAIJISHUYUCEZHONG,ZHEIGESHIJIANTUILIGUOCHENGZHUYAOSHIYUCEZHUTIZAISIWEIZHONGJINXINGDEGOUJIAN,WEIRAOZHUTIDEYIXIANGMUBIAO,TUICECHUZHIZAOTEDINGGONGNENGDEJISHURENGONGWUYINGGAICAIQUDECHENGXU、FANGSHIHESHOUDUAN。JISHUYUCEZAISIWEILIXINGZHONGDUIJISHURENGONGWUDEGOUJIANYUXIANSHIZHIZAOJISHURENGONGWUDEJINGYANHESUOYUNYONGDEJISHUZHISHIJUYOUYIZHIXING。XIANSHIZHONGZHIZAOJUYOUMOUZHONGGONGNENGDEJISHURENGONGWU,ZONGSHITONGGUOYONGYIDINGDELINGBUJIANGOUZHICHENGYIDINGDEJIEGOULAIWANCHENG。WEICI,WOMENJIANGJISHURENGONGWUDESHIJIANTUILIMOSHI[9]GAIZAOWEIJISHUYUCEDEJIEGOU—GONGNENGDESHIJIANTUILIMOSHI:

                棋牌大全下载安装   (2a)ZHUTIAXIANGYAOYOUYIGEJUYOUGONGNENGFDEJISHURENGONGWUX;

                棋牌大全下载安装   (2b)ZHUTIAXIANGXIN,ZAIDANGQIANJINGJI、WENHUADENGHUANJINGETIAOJIANXIA,YIJUJISHUZHISHITK,YAOZHIZAOYIGEJUYOUGONGNENGFDEJISHURENGONGWUX,JIUBIXUYONGLINGBUJIANCZHIZAOCHENGJIEGOUS;

                棋牌大全下载安装   (2c)YINCI,ZHUTIAYUCEBIXUYONGLINGBUJIANCZHIZAOCHENGJIEGOUS。

                  QIZHONG,(2b)ZHISUOYICHENGLI,JIUSHIJISHUYUCEZHUTIGENJUZIJIYIYOUDEJIBENSHEJIZHISHI、LILUNGONGJUZHISHIHEXINGDONGZHISHIDENGJISHUZHISHITK(Technological Knowledge)HEJINGYAN,YIJISHIXIANDANGQIANJISHUMUBIAOSUOYINGJUBEIDEWUZHITIAOJIAN,ZUOCHUDETUIDUAN,ZHEISHIYIZHONGJIYUJISHUYUCEGUOCHENGDECHUDEJIEGUO。DANGRENMENZHIDAO“CHUANGZAOYIZUCHUSHITIAOJIANSUIHOUJIUHUICHANSHENGYOUYONGDEJISHUHOUGUO”HOU,BIANKEYITONGGUOJISHUYUCE,CHUANGZAOYIDINGDETIAOJIAN,LIYONGYIZHIDEYINGUOGUANXILAIQUDEYUXIANGDEJISHUJIEGUO,FANYINGLEJISHUYUCESHIZHISHANGSHIYIZHONGYIJUXIANGGUANDEJISHUJINGYANYUJISHUZHISHIERJINXINGDESHIJIANTUILIGUOCHENG。

                  2.关于技术预测的准确性

                棋牌大全下载安装   YUCEHUISHEJIDAOZHUNQUEXINGWENTI。YUYANYIDEKEXUELUOJIJUYOUZHENHUOJIA、DUIHUOCUODEQUEDINGZHENZHIBUTONG,SHIJIANTUILIBUJUYOUYANYILUOJIDEBIRANXING。M.BANGGERENWEI,SHIJIANTUILIYINGGAIYIYOUXIAO、WUXIAOHEBUQUEDINGSANGELUOJIYOUXIAOZHILAIJINXINGJIAZHIPINGPAN。[4]JISHUYUCEZUOWEIYIZHONGSHIJIANTUILI,QIJIEGUOSHIFOUZHUNQUE,HUOZHUNQUECHENGDURUHE,ZUIZHONGBIXUYOUJISHUSHIJIANHUODONGDEJIEGUOLAIJUEDING。YINCI,ZUOWEIYIZHONGSHIJIANTUILI,JISHUYUCEDEZHUNQUEXINGSHIYIGEGAILVDEWENTI,

                棋牌大全下载安装   CONGXIANSHICENGMIANLAIKAN,JISHUYUCEDEZHUNQUEXINGYEZHISHIZAIMOUZHONGCHENGDUSHANGNENGGOUDEYISHIXIAN。XIANDAIJISHUSHIYIGEFUZADEXITONG,YIQIEJISHUHUODONGZUIZHONGDOUYAOSHENGCHANCHUWUZHIDUIXIANGBINGWANCHENGYIDINGDERENWU,ZHEIYIGUOCHENGDEFUZASHIDEJISHUYUCEDEJIEGUOZONGSHIDAIYOUHUORANXINGDE。SHOUXIAN,RENMENDUIJISHUJINGYANZHISHIHEJISHULILUNZHISHIDEBAWOZONGSHIYOUXIANDE,YINERZAICIJICHUSHANGZUOCHUDEJISHUYUCE,ZHUNQUEXINGBIANSHOUDAOLEXIANGYINGCHENGDUDEXIANZHI。QICI,JIBIANZAIGUILVCENGCI,JISHUYUCEYOUXIAO,DANRUGUOMEIYOUXIANGYINGDECAILIAO、ZHIZAOSHEBEIYUYIWANCHENG,ZHEIYANGDEJISHUYUCEJIEGUOYENANYIZHENZHENGSHIXIAN。BIRU,WOMENZHIZAOYITAIHANGKONGWOSHANFADONGJI,JIUBIXUYAOYONGYOUDIYIGUANJIANCAILIAO——DANJINGWOLUNYEPIAN,YIJIRUANJIAN、YINGJIANDEKONGZHIXITONG,HAIYOUFENGSHAN、JINSHUJIFUHECAILIAO、TANXIANWEI、GAOXINGNENGSHUZHI、ZHIZAOYUJIAGONGJISHU、FADONGJISHISHIJIANCEJISHU、FADONGJIDEGAOKONGSHIYANTAIDENGDENG,ZAIXIFANGGUOJIAYANMIFENGSUOJISHUDEQINGKUANGXIA,WOGUOZHINENGZAIYUANYOUFADONGJIDEJISHUJICHUSHANG,KAIZHANKEXUEYOUXIAODEJISHUYUCE,CAINENGSHIXIANZILIGENGSHENG、ZIZHUCHUANGXIN。KEJIAN,YAOZUOCHUJUXIANSHIYIYIDEJISHUYUCE,JIUBIXUZHANGWOXIANGYINGDEJISHUZHISHI,BINGQIEYIJINGZAIMOUZHONGCHENGDUSHANGZHANGWOLEXIANGGUANYAOSU(CAILIAO)、JIEGOUYUGONGNENG。ZHUNQUEDEJISHUYUCE,BUJINYAOJIANLIZAIJISHUDEKENENGXINGSHANG,ERQIEYEBIXUJIANLIZAIJISHUDESHIXIANXINGSHANG。

                棋牌大全下载安装   CONGJISHUGUANLICENGCISHANGZHANKAIDEZHENGTIXINGJISHUYUCEWUYISHIYOUYIDINGYIYIDE,DANRUGUOJINJINGENJUSHICHANGDEXUYAOJINXINGYOUGUANDEJISHUYUCE(RUDEERFEIFA),ZHEIYANGDEJISHUWANGWANGYOUYIDINGDEZHIHOUQI,NANYIGAIBIANYIGEGUOJIADEJISHUYIBUYIQUDEJUMIAN。ZHIYOUZAIFAXIANJISHUGUILVDEJICHUSHANG,GENJUJISHUGUILVZUOCHUJISHUYUCE,CAINENGGOUZHENZHENGTISHENGJISHUDEYUANSHICHUANGXINNENGLI,ZHANGWOHECHUANGZAOGUANJIANHEXINJISHU。

                  参考文献

                  [1]Mina R.第二次世界大战与美国数学的发展[J].自然杂志,1983,6(7):519-526.
                  [2]Martin B R. Foresight in Science and Technology[J]. Technology Analysis& Strategic Management, vol.7, 1995:139-168.
                  [3] 《汉语大词典》第12卷(上册)[M].上海:上海辞书出版社,2011.
                  [4]张华夏,张志林.技术解释研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
                  [5][德]F.拉普.技术哲学导论[M].沈阳:辽宁科学技术出版社,1986.
                  [6]Nordmann A. Plausibility[J]. Foresight and Innovation Policy, Vol. 9, 2013:125-132.
                  [7][英]约翰.齐曼.技术创新进化论[M].孙喜杰、曾国屏译.上海:上海科技教育出版社,2002.
                  [8]吴国林.论分析技术哲学的可能进路[J].中国社会科学,2016(10):29-51.
                  [9]吴国林.论技术人工物的结构描述与功能描述的推理关系[J].哲学研究, 2016(1):113-120.
                棋牌大全下载安装   [10]吴国林,李君亮.试论实践推理[J].自然辩证法研究,2015(1):27-31.

                棋牌大全下载安装相关的文章
                联系我们
                • 写作QQ:
                • 发表QQ:
                • 服务电话:
                • 售后电话:
                • 邮箱:
                范文范例

                靠谱的棋牌---首页_Welcome 百灵拼三张-Welcome 蓝洞棋牌官网送3金币---首页_Welcome 035棋牌手游官网 聚友棋牌官网下载安装-首页